Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States
European Journal of Epidemiology (2021) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-021-00808-7
S. V. Subramanian & Akhil Kumar
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Vaccination publications in VitaminDWiki 125 as of Dec 2021
- Vaccinated have HIGHER infection rates than unvaxxed (UK age 30-70) - Dec 9, 2021
- Vaccinated and Unvaccinated are just as infectious after catching COVID-Delta (UK study) - Aug 2021
- Warning - mass vaccinations typically create mutations that are vaccine resistant - July 29, 2021
- Problems with vaccine use during a pandemic - Dr. Bossche interview with transcript - April 22, 2021
- COVID-19 cases increased in 26 countries soon after vaccinations - April, May 2021
Possible reason that increase in new cases is independant from vaccination
Vaccines do not substantially decrease % of asymptomatic cases - which can cause infections
- The partial reduction in infectiousness due to vaccine is offset by reduced masking and social distancing by the vaccinated.
- "Asymptomatic infections have been the main driver of rapid dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 infection,” Oct 3, 2021
- Vaccination was also associated with a decreased risk of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.11 CDC Sept 20, 2021
Vaccinated person who become infected is infectous for 4 X longer than unvaccinated person
Long-haul, VAERS, Ivermectin, vaccines, etc. Drs. Seheult, Patrick: Video with table of contents - Sept 17, 2021 @1:42
Study was cited 31 times as of Jan 3, 2022
- COVID-19 Incidence and Hospitalization Rates are Inversely Related to Vaccination Coverage Among the 112 Most Populous Counties in the United States PDF
- “Comment on Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.” PDF
- Weak or No Correlation Between Recent COVID-19 Data and Vaccination Rates in France - Nov 2021 PDF
Some Non-COVID viral infections from vaccinated people
- Whooping cough resurgence due to vaccinated people not knowing they're infectious? Science Daily June 2015
- Asymptomatic Wild-Type Poliovirus Infection in India among Children with Previous Oral Poliovirus Vaccination May 2010 PREE PDF
- Why Mumps And Measles Can Spread Even When We're Vaccinated NPR April 2014
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- "As of 2020, there are currently 3,143 counties and county equivalents in the 50 states and the District of Columbia." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County_(United_States)
- No indication if Chinese vaccines were included in the analysis. China is using traditional methods (inactivated virus), which might have different charactristics
COVID Vaccines Do Not Impact Infection Mercola comment on this study, Nov 11, 2021
*Of the five U.S. counties with the highest vaccination rates — ranging from 84.3% to 99.9% fully vaccinated — four are on the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s “high transmission” list, while 26.3% of the 57 counties with “low transmission” had vaccination rates under 20%"
- "Iceland and Portugal, both of which have more than 75% of their populations fully vaccinated, have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than Vietnam and South Africa, where only 10% or so of their populations are fully vaccinated"
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Trend of INCREASE in COVID-19 cases in countries having more vaccinations
Vaccines currently are the primary mitigation strategy to combat COVID-19 around the world. For instance, the narrative related to the ongoing surge of new cases in the United States (US) is argued to be driven by areas with low vaccination rates [1]. A similar narrative also has been observed in countries, such as Germany and the United Kingdom [2]. At the same time, Israel that was hailed for its swift and high rates of vaccination has also seen a substantial resurgence in COVID-19 cases [3]. We investigate the relationship between the percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases across 68 countries and across 2947 counties in the US.
Methods
We used COVID-19 data provided by the Our World in Data for cross-country analysis, available as of September 3, 2021 (Supplementary Table 1) [4]. We included 68 countries that met the following criteria: had second dose vaccine data available; had COVID-19 case data available; had population data available; and the last update of data was within 3 days prior to or on September 3, 2021. For the 7 days preceding September 3, 2021 we computed the COVID-19 cases per 1 million people for each country as well as the percentage of population that is fully vaccinated.
For the county-level analysis in the US, we utilized the White House COVID-19 Team data [5], available as of September 2, 2021 (Supplementary Table 2). We excluded counties that did not report fully vaccinated population percentage data yielding 2947 counties for the analysis. We computed the number and percentages of counties that experienced an increase in COVID-19 cases by levels of the percentage of people fully vaccinated in each county. The percentage increase in COVID-19 cases was calculated based on the difference in cases from the last 7 days and the 7 days preceding them. For example, Los Angeles county in California had 18,171 cases in the last 7 days (August 26 to September 1) and 31,616 cases in the previous 7 days (August 19–25), so this county did not experience an increase of cases in our dataset. We provide a dashboard of the metrics used in this analysis that is updated automatically as new data is made available by the White House COVID-19 Team https://tiny.cc/USDashboard
Findings
At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days.
The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.
US Dashboard as of Oct 5, 2021
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